Business

As we highlighted (see here), China’s macro data for October 2017 was disappointing with retail sales and industrial production missing consensus estimates, fixed asset investment was in line and inflation surprised on the upside. There was some impact from state-driven efforts to reduce pollution, but this issue will be an ongoing headache for decades. In big picture terms, the challenge for the Chinese leadership is to deflate a credit bubble in an orderly fashion, something which we’re not aware has ever been done on this scale.

As the storm clouds of peak stupidity gather over the heads of the millennial generation who were conned by banks, government, and universities to take out excessive amounts of leverage in auto loans, credit cards, and student debt; millions have flocked to a new website seeking ‘Sugar Daddies’ and or even ‘Sugar Mommies’ to pay off their debt amid an economic environment where wage growth remains non-existent.

Ever since the Federal Reserve first got into the business of blowing massive equity bubbles back in the 1980's, Americans have shown a willingness to happily, if ignorantly, embrace each successive iteration to the rigged market.  Of course, as E-Trade recently confirmed via the following ad, making money in equities is a very simple two-step process: (1) get invested, (2) buy a yacht made of Cuban mahogany and party with models...why would anyone in their right mind pass that up?

As we just detailed in great depth, China's credit growth is slowing at just the wrong time - as exemplified by last night's economic malaise and bond market weakness - and tonight we are starting to see it ripple through commodity and stock markets...

As we noted earlier, Chinese bonds are breaking key levels as China's credit impulse begins to weigh...

And tonight we are seeing that deleveraging pressure filter through to equity markets...

And even more so in the industrial commodities...

SO WHAT?

Submitted by Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital

CREDIT LEADS “ALL OTHER” ECONOMIC DATA IN CHINA

China until recently euphoric credit growth, is rapidly grinding to a halt. As we published last week, and a key underpinning of our negative outlook on commodity prices through the remainder of 4Q17 and into 2018, the moderation in China’s credit seen more recently appears to be gaining momentum. The evidence?