Business

After July's housing sales data horrors, yesterday's permits rebound prompted some hope (despite last week's 9.7% collapse in mortgage applications) but August's existing home sales just crushed that dream, dropping to one-year lows. Following a 1.3% MoM decline in July, August saw existing home sales tumble 1.7% MoM (against expectations of a 0.2% rebound) and up just 0.2% YoY.

This is the 3rd monthly decline in a row...

Dropping SAAR sales to one year lows...

With stocks at all time highs, Dennis Gartman, who took the time to make a quick mockery of cryptocurrencies in his latest letter, is starting to get nervous on risk assets, pointing out what he calls an "anomaly." Below are the selected excerpts from his latest note:

THE S&P FUTURES: They Rise While Volume Falls!: We are still erring bullishly of the equity market, but we do find it passing strange that as the market has moved higher the volumes being transacted are plunging… and aren’t price and volume to move in concert, one with the other?.

Let the farce begin.

The Fed meets today to discuss whether or not to begin shrinking its balance sheet.  The financial media informs us that this is the single most important Fed meeting in years and that its coming announcement is a game-changer.

Give me a break.

The day has finally arrived: today the Fed will officially announce the start of its balance sheet shrinkage (full preview here) while keeping rates unchanged, perhaps hiking again in December (market odds at 56%), while revising its economic projections and "dots", most likely in a lower direction.

From Bloomberg macro commentator Marc Cudmore

Today’s Fed meeting is critical for all financial assets. A large part of the framework for how to trade the year ahead will be clarified between Wednesday’s statement, the dot plot and subsequent FOMC member speeches in coming days.

Fed meetings are often overhyped, particularly by financial commentators. Don’t dismiss the hype this time. And because the Fed’s decision is so crucial for the path of FX and rates, every other asset hinges on the outcome by extension.