Business

At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen's Albert "Ice Age" Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the Fed. We did not see it, and said so, pointing out that the bulk of US job growth in recent years has been among industries that have little to no wage power.

Thanks to a surge in government spending in Q2, Canada's GDP grew at 4.5% SAAR. This is the best growth since Q3 2011 and is the best growth of all G-7 nations in Q2.

This is higher than the highest economist estimate...

Following June's MoM decline in incomes, Americans saw a modest 0.4% bounce in July (better than expected). However, their spending grew less than expected (up 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% expectations).

However, real personal spending rose just 0.2% MoM in July (below expectations).

This sent the US personal savings rate down to just 3.5%, the lowest since December 2016.

It's groundhog day as S&P futures, European and Asian shares all rise overnight, while the dollar is set to .

It's time to start worrying about currency wars again.