Dallas Fed

Via C.Jay Engel of The Mises Institute,

The story is that it is consumers that are going "to push the economy to grow more than 2 percent this year." That's Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's recently expressed view. It's the old fallacy of spending — rather than saving — our way into growth.

It's remarkable that no one talks about the fact that the economy since 2008 was built on little but cheap debt, and therefore depends on the continued flow of such debt.

Core Durables Goods and Shipments MISS, Pending Home Sales MISS, Dallas Fed 'Survey' BEAT...

"Never gonna let you down"... 12th Record Dow Close In A Row.

One of the least convoluted, most insightful and thus best forecasts of what the first few months of the Trump administration will look like, came from one of the respondents of today's Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. This is what the respondent said:

President Trump looks to do things that will be favorable for business, which would improve employment and growth if successful. However, protesters are all over the place, so I tend to think that will cause trouble for the country and for business.

In a recent interview with CNBC's Rick Santelli, Richard Fisher, former President of the Dallas Fed, explained “The Fed has the market on Ritalin—trying to keep the mood very smooth, keep volatility down as much as possible. As soon as they hint that they might remove that, then they create the problems they're afraid of. So, they've boxed themselves into a corner, and the real art will be to see how they manoeuvre to get out of that”….“When [the Fed] move—and I hope they move sometime in June—there'll be a settling in of the marketplace. There will be a correction. Suck it up.

Ahead of two key central banks events this week, the Fed announcement on Wednesday - in which Yellen is expected to do nothing and most likely will continue the dovish relent first seen a month ago - and then the BOJ on Thursday (which also mark the anniversary of the second longest and most artificial bull market in history) where Kuroda is increasingly expected to shock with something even more ridiculous, global shares have fallen modestly around the world as oil declined on signs a global surplus of crude is likely to persist.