House vote

As we noted first thing this morning, and as we, and others, have been warning since December, the passage of Trump's tax plan is conditional on the effective repeal (and/or replace) of Obamacare, which is set for a vote on Thursday.  And yet, it was only today that the market, and the press, appeared to notice that the biggest threat for the market - a market which has long ago priced in the successful passage of Trump's tax cuts - is that Trumpcare may not pass not only the Senate, but also the House, which in turn would stall Trump's tax plan schedule well into fiscal 20

With political uncertainty near record highs (but equity market uncertainty near record lows), Goldman's Jan Hatzius analyzes the four biggest political risks receiving the most attention from market participants (and stand to create the most chaos if the priced for perfection market is disappointed).

Via Goldman Sachs,

Q: What are the near-term risks on the agenda in Washington?

There are four risks we are monitoring that have recently received some attention from market participants:

As first discussed on Friday, in order to overcome vocal objections to Obamacare repeal by conservative republicans, the White House won the support of the Republican Study Committee members by agreeing to give states the option to impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients and the option to block grant Medicaid instead of the cap system in the bill.  Today, during the Sunday morning TV circuit, Paul Ryan elaborated further that House Republicans are working on additional changes to the Obamcare repeal bill which seek to provide more generous tax credits for older Americans, while conf

After a tweet from the President-elect this morning promising that "The "Unaffordable" Care Act will soon be history!", the House of Representatives has just approved a budget resolution that brings that promise one step closer to its fruition.  Although many speculated that House Republicans would splinter after weeks of bickering on the merits of a simultaneous repeal and replace versus repeal now and replace later strategy, the final vote came in at 227-198 with only 9 Republicans dissenting.

Submitted by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Continuing the debate over a massive expansion of the Selective Service, the White House today announced that President Obama is in favor of expanding registration for the military draft to include all women when they turn 18.

"As old barriers for military service are being removed, the administration supports — as a logical next step — women registering for the Selective Service," said Ned Price, a spokesman for Obama's National Security Council.