Republican Party

If you look at the Real Clear Politics chart of the average polls results for South Carolina, you’ll see a trend that looks somewhat like what Iowa looked like before the caucus, namely: Trump in the lead but dropping, and Rubio steadily rising. Trump’s lead is considerably larger than it was in Iowa pre-caucus, plus he’s held that lead in South Carolina far longer, plus South Carolina is a primary rather than a caucus. But the trend lines are still somewhat similar. So: is a similar surprise in the offing? Will Trump significantly underperform his polls?

At the risk of posting too much Trumpiana, I have to highlight this comment from reader St. Louisan:

National Review ran a piece this week taking Trump fans and other GOP rebels to task for failing to appreciate mainline Conservatism’s achievements, and putting them at risk. But this is what the piece gives as the “cornucopia of significant changes” for which Bush-weary voters should be grateful:

Take a look at this USA Today op-ed from J.D. Vance, a Marine Corps veteran who used to support Trump, no longer does, but says he gets it. Boy, does he get it. Vance said that until last fall, he thought Trump was a stunt candidate for the white working class; he backed Jeb Bush. Until when, in a GOP debate, Jeb defended his brother for “keeping us safe.” That did it. Excerpts:

In the simplest possible terms, NBC seems to be suffering from a rather acute bout of schizophrenia when it comes to assessing the race for the GOP nomination.

If was just 2 days ago that NBC, in conjunction with Survey Monkey, released the results of a national poll which showed that Donald Trump was a 20 point national favorite among registered Republicans going into the South Carolina primary.

The same poll showed Trump holding a commanding 9 point lead in the race to secure the white evangelical vote.

Yesterday I laid out a rationale for social conservatives voting for Trump. Today I will do the same for social conservatives to vote against Trump (and therefore for one of the other GOP candidates). I’m going to start with the premise that you, the social conservative, are alienated from the Republican Party and tempted to vote for Trump to send a message, to blow up the system, or some related reason. Here is a case for not doing that — and remember, like yesterday’s post, this is a thought experiment.