Republican primary

Live (if voice-overed) feed from CNN:

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First Exit Polls Data

As part of Trump's blistering, unconventional and very unexpected rise to the top of the Republican presidential nominee ranks, he has seen his share of threats - some serious, most in jest - to both his person, and in some cases his life. Apocryphally, some commentators have predicted that a Trump presidency would be such a shock to the status quo that if successful in winning the presidency, he would never make to inauguration day alive.

Last July I wrote that Donald Trump was merely a “blip,” a novelty candidate who couldn’t do much better than 17 percent in the polls. He would swiftly go the way of Herman Cain.

In August, I still didn’t believe the Trump hype. The 2016 race, I predicted, would see an early surge for a religious right candidate, followed by the inevitable nomination of the establishment favorite, probably Jeb Bush. After the Iowa caucuses, I was sure my scenario was playing out, only with Rubio in place Bush.

Peter Suderman comments on Paul Ryan’s underwhelming speech on American politics:

The framing of the announcement raised expectations that Ryan, who has made several speeches indirectly criticizing Trumpish behavior but has also indicated that he would back the candidate if he became the party’s presidential nominee, might finally address Trump directly. Which, of course, would be a big deal given that Ryan is, in addition to being the Speaker of the House, arguably the institutional voice of the party right now, its chief spokesperson and visionary.

Rod Dreher points to the findings in the latest NYT/CBS News poll, noting that Trump is tightening his hold on the GOP. 46% support Trump nationally, which is equal to the support for the other two candidates put together. Compared to last month’s survey, Trump has gained 11 points and expanded his lead over Cruz to 20. (A combined 72% of Republican primary voters support candidates loathed by the party leadership.) Trump’s support has continued to grow, which was always likely to happen as he won more contests and more candidates dropped out.