The market should bounce this morning, but after that we’re heading down.
The technical damage from last week was severe with the bull market trendline that has supported stocks since early November being violated on the S&P 500.
Moreover, stocks finished down during August options expiration week in six of the last seven years. So there is also a negative historical pattern for this week.
In light of today's euphoric market reaction, which has seen the VIX plunge by over 3 vols, or 20% lower, to just over 12 and sent both the Nasdaq and S&P higher by 1% on relief that there were no mushroom clouds of the weekend, the jury is out whether last week's sharp risk off, short-vol mauling will persist or be just another BTFD opportunity. But while last week's tension may already be forgotten, some disturbing trends persist.
While the moves in equity (VIX) and credit (CDX, ITRX) protection costs last week shocked many out of their recent coma of complacency, former fund manager Richard Breslow warns it was the lack of reaction across markets broadly that investors should be more worried about.
Via Bloomberg,
"Well, that escalated quickly."
Global markets are closed for the weekend, so we will need to wait until tomorrow evening to see how investors react to the latest back-and-forth between the North Korean government and President Donald Trump. In North Korea’s latest salvo in its war of words, a state-run newspaper declared in an editorial that the country’s Paektusan army is now “on standby to launch fire into its [the US’s] mainland, waiting for an order of final attack."