US Federal Reserve

2016 was the year when, in the aftermath of the Fed's first tightening cycle in a decade, the yield curve was supposed to not only rise substantially but also steepen, providing a much needed NIM arbitrage for commercial banks. That has not only not happened, but as a result of the Fed's relent according to which the Fed will no longer hike 4 times in 2016 but at peast 2, and according to the market 0, yields have tumbled.

Authored by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

During a lengthy interview on CNBC the week before last, Donald Trump, fresh from becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, came as close as any major presidential contender ever has to saying that America is not capable of repaying her debts in full, and that our path to economic recovery might involve some pain for our creditors. This moment of candor earned Trump almost as much condemnation as his earlier suggestions to ban Muslims from entering the United States.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As we reach the halfway point in the 2nd quarter of the year, I thought it was time to revisit the economy as the backdrop against expectations for stronger economic growth, rising inflationary pressures and an increase in interest rates and expectations.

The March/April dead cat bounce in Empire Fed Survey is back deep into contraction territory. Having surged to +9.6, May saw respondents entirely lose faith and crash back to -9, massively missing expectations of a +6.5 print (the biggest drop since Oct 2014). Under the surface everything plunged (except the number of employees which inched higher) as New Orders, Workweek, and Prices received all contracted drastically. Even hope tumbled with future CapEx expectationscollapsing by the most since June 2013.

The bounce is dead...