US Federal Reserve

Authored by Lena Komileva, originally posted at The Financial Times,

The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in six months in June, even though inflation had stayed below its 2 per cent target for much of the past decade. Why? The justification lies with the return to “economic normalisation” (a more normal US growth and credit cycle), a reflationary global environment and easy financial conditions all combining to banish the extreme “tail risks” of a deflationary slump that followed the financial crisis.

With oil crashing, 'hard' economic data slumping, political chaos ahead of the debt ceiling debacle, and The Fed about to embark on something no central bank has ever done (let alone done successfully), it should be no surprise that earnings expectations are being ramped exponentially higher and The Dow (thanks in large part to Boeing recently) has exploded near 22,000 today for the first time ever making yet another new record high...

Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan blasphemously warned a year ago of an "imminent crisis":

"This is the worst period, I recall since I've been in public service. There's nothing like it, including the crisis - remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away. I'd love to find something positive to say."

Via MauldinEconomics.com,

It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.

President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.

There is no getting away from it: in what has become a long-running tradition, every day brings a new explanation (or at least attempt) to the current low-vol regime from a major bank, and today it was (again) Bank of America's turn to explain why the VIX, and cross asset vol in general, both continue to trade near all time low.