To summarize - this week saw chaos in emerging market stocks, high yield credit, Treasuries, crude, copper, Chinese money markets, and risk-parity funds... and US stocks hung in there:
All we can say is...
If today's payrolls print was so awesome, why did stocks and the dollar tumble and gold and bonds rally?
Small Caps suffered the worst week since September... This was The Dow's worst week of 2017 which is sad at (up 5 of the last 6 weeks), note that NASDAQ very briefly tagged unch for the week at the open today...
VIX was pressured to ensure it closed the week below 11.55 (which is 2017's highest weekly close) - BUT FAILED! Highest weekly close for VIX in 2017
The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq desperately clung to unchanged from pre-Trump-speech close...
Financials had the worst week in 2 months... with JPMorgan (green) down 2.5% off the Trump speech highs...
SNAP briefly Crackled then dropped... and today's options opening did not help...Snap put options outpaced calls over 3 to 1 on the first day the options traded since last week’s IPO.
Something is very broken with market internals - McClellan Oscillator is crashing as stocks hold near record highs...
This week saw Risk Parity funds suffering - the worst week for the stock-bond-vol strategy funds since the election...
And the delevering sparked selling across bonds and stocks...
High Yield bond prices crashed this week (back to its 200DMA) - the worst week since Feb 2016
Massive HYG outflows this week...
Treasury yields rose for the second week in a row to 2017 highs...
Today's rally in bonds saved the Treasury complex from its worst losing streak since 1974!!
The USD Index was on target for a strong week but today's disappointing earnings (and payrolls miss of the whisper number) combined with Wilbur Ross' comments on trade deals legged the USD notably lower... Today's drop echoes last week's moves almost perfectly - and erases practically all the dollar's gains on the week...
So the week's gains are erased today - despite a "good" jobs print - policy error? Note EUR surged on the week
EURUSD hit 1.07 - one-month highs, extending gains after chatter (denied) of rate hikes before the end of QE
Notably Wilbur Ross' comments on NAFTA and Japan sent both the peso and Yen surging today...
March continues to be ugly for commodities... this was copper's worst week since September
Crude saw its worst week since right before the election, tumbling to a $48 handle and erasing all the OPEC-Cut Deal gains...
Oil Vol is starting to pick up but has a long way to go...
Precious Metals were pummeled this week - gold and silver's worst week since the election...(NOTE gold managed to eke out a green day today - breaking an 8 day losing streak)
Bitcoin soared above gold - hitting $1327 intraday after payrolls.
Finally we leave you with this WTF chart of the month - the odds of a March rate hike have soared (Fed Funds Futures collapse) in aperfectly correlated way with the collapse in GDP growth forecasts - the exact opposite of what would be expected in any rational world...
March rate hike odds now 100%, and June is now above a 50% chance of a 2nd hike. Dear Janet, explain the above!