The one catalyst most responsible for sending the price of oil from its 13 year lows hit in early February some 50% higher in the following month, has been the recurring rumor about an "imminent" OPEC production freeze meeting which was initially supposed to take place in early March, then on March 20, and now on April 17 (we expect this to be rescheduled shortly as well).
As a reminder, Qatar has invited all OPEC members and major producers from outside the exporting group to attend talks on April 17 on a deal to freeze output at January levels to support the global oil market, Qatar's energy ministry said. "The need has become an urgent matter to bring back balance to the market and recovery to the global economy," the ministry said in the invitation letter.
The ministry had said that around 15 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 73 percent of global oil output, are supporting the initiative. The problem is that all it takes is for one or two member nations to avoid the meeting and thus make any attempt at supply cuts moot.
So here is, according to Reuters, the latest summary of who is, may or won't be attending next month's Doha meeting:
And, as noted previously, should even one oil producing nation snub the meeting it is all for nothing. As Bloomberg explained last week, "The other 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to meet in the Qatari capital on April 17, officials from the respective countries have said. The absence of Iran and Libya, which are determined to restore supplies shuttered by conflict and sanctions, means any accord is unlikely to be effective, according to Commerzbank AG."
"The meeting is turning more and more into a farce,” analysts at Commerzbank led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report. “It is hardly surprising that Libya is not interested in the Doha meeting. Like Iran, it first wants to increase output and then talk about a freeze."
Just don't tell the short squeeze and stop hunting algos.