We are witnessing an old-fashioned standoff in the Middle East right now. The IDF was supposed to have sent thousands of troops storming into Gaza by now, but threats from Hezbollah and Iran have caused Israeli officials to pause. Do the Israelis really want to fight an extremely bloody two front war? Iran has actually brought up the possibility of “pre-emptive action”, but that would inevitably spark a military response from the United States. Do the Iranians really want to fight the U.S. military? There are some that are hoping that this standoff will ultimately allow cooler heads to prevail, but I see it as the calm before the storm.
After everything that has happened, there is no way that Israel can allow Hamas to survive.
And on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu certainly did not sound like a man that is ready to back down…
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a news conference on Tuesday, described Hamas as “the new Nazis,” and called on the world to unite and eradicate the terrorist organization the same way it defeated the Nazis.
During his remarks, Netanyahu also stated that the atrocities that Hamas just committed were “the worst crimes committed against Jews since the Holocaust”…
Hamas-led forces crossed the Israel-Gaza border Oct. 7, slaughtering 1,400 Israeli men, women, children and elderly in what has become the deadliest terror attack in Israel’s history.
“The savagery we witnessed perpetrated by the Hamas murderers coming out of Gaza were the worst crimes committed against Jews since the Holocaust,” Netanyahu said during the news conference.
If the Israeli government were to decide not to invade Gaza, Netanyahu would almost inevitably be forced to resign in disgrace.
The Israeli people want Hamas to be destroyed, and that means going into Gaza.
But if that happens, it will likely mean a two front war.
In fact, Iran’s foreign minister has even suggested that there could be “pre-emptive action” even before the IDF sends troops pouring into Gaza…
“The possibility of pre-emptive action by the resistance axis is expected in the coming hours,” Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a live broadcast to state TV, as he referred to his meeting with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday.
Earlier Monday, Iran’s top diplomat and president, Ebrahim Raisi had said time was running out to reach a political solution and warned against the expansion of the Israel-Hamas war to other fronts.
Amir-Abdollahian said Monday that “the resistance leaders” will not allow Israel “to do whatever it wants in Gaza”.
Iranian leaders like to make dramatic statements, but I have never seen them talk quite like this.
For example, just check out some of the statements that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just made in front of the entire world…
– “We MUST Respond to What is Happening in Gaza”
– “The usurper Zionist regime must be prosecuted.”
– “This should be realized by those who want Iran to stop certain Resistance groups, and they shouldn’t have any expectation from us.”
– “All parties should refrain from asking anyone to prevent a group from taking steps in response to the crimes of the Zionists”
– “Our numerous intelligence reports show that the US is formulating the Zionist regime’s current policy, and what is being done is governed by US policymaking. The US must be held responsible for this situation.”
– “If the crimes of the Zionist entity continue, no one will be able to stand up to Muslims and the resistance forces.”
– “Whatever crimes the Zionist regime commits will fail to compensate for its disgraceful defeat during the Al-Aqsa Storm operation.”
So when Israeli forces finally go into Gaza, what will the Iranian response look like?
The first thing I expect to happen is for Hezbollah to join the war.
That would mean a two front war, and the Israelis appear to be rapidly preparing for such a scenario.
In fact, it is being reported that 28 towns and communities in northern Israel are going to be evacuated…
But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action.
The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.
NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.
The good news is that a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah has not erupted just yet.
But Hezbollah is calling for “a day of unprecedented anger” on Wednesday…
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group denounced what they said was Israel’s deadly attack on a Gaza hospital that killed hundreds of Palestinians, announcing Wednesday “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel and Biden’s visit to the country, according to a statement released by Hezbollah late on Tuesday.
“The attack reveals the true criminal face of this entity and its sponsor…the United States, which bears direct and complete responsibility for this massacre,” according to the statement.
And as I write this article, there are reports of vast numbers of protesters heading toward the U.S. embassy in Beirut.
In Beirut, Lebanon everyone is heading towards the US EMBASSY. pic.twitter.com/Q6ncVoWLml
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 17, 2023
Needless to say, events could spiral out of control very rapidly.
If Hezbollah does go to war with Israel, the Biden administration has already discussed using military force against Hezbollah…
The White House has been discussing the possibility of using military force if Hezbollah joins the war in Gaza and attacks Israel with its huge arsenal of rockets, three U.S. officials and one Israeli official with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.
Once the U.S. starts bombing targets in Lebanon, there will be no turning back.
All U.S. facilities and bases all over the Middle East would suddenly become targets for Islamic terrorists, and it is likely that we would see terror attacks inside the United States as well.
So going to war should not be done lightly.
But Hezbollah has at least 130,000 missiles ready to be fired at Israel, and once large numbers of missiles start raining down on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem no U.S. president is just going to sit there and watch it happen.
In fact, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already told Arab leaders that we are “not fooling around”…
Two U.S. officials said Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Arab leaders in the region, with whom he’d met in recent days, that the U.S. “is not fooling around” by sending so many military assets to the region in support of Israel.
At this hour, two U.S. aircraft carriers and thousands of troops are in the eastern Mediterranean waiting for orders…
The United States is sending an amphibious task force of thousands of U.S. sailors and Marines toward Israel, where they will be positioned aboard warships in case the conflict there with Hamas expands.
Two defense officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss planned military movements, said Monday that the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, numbering more than 4,000 sailors and Marines, will join a growing American fleet off the coast of Israel that will include two aircraft carriers and their associated escort ships.
The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, based at Camp Lejeune, N.C., is deployed with the amphibious task force and trained for a wide array of missions, including some special operations. The USS Bataan and the USS Carter Hall, two of the warships carrying personnel from the unit, were in the Gulf of Oman on Monday, having left Kuwait recently after Hamas’s unprecedented cross-border attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
We really are on the brink of the hot phase of World War III.
Once Israeli troops move into Gaza, we are going to see who was bluffing and who was not.
Unfortunately, I think that we will quickly realize that almost all of the threats being made on both sides were actually real.
The Great Middle East War is here, and it is going to be extremely bloody.
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