We’re starting to see some concerning developments in the luxury real estate market. First, we observed as Urbancorp, one of Toronto’s largest property developers, quietly canceled a condo complex they had been working on, and instead converting the project into rental apartments. This was one of the first signs that demand for luxury real estate is declining.
First it was the Saudis; then Russia announced another month of record oil production.
And now it is Iraq's turn. According to the state-run Oil Marketing Co., Iraq increased crude output to a record level in March, ahead of the long-awaited April 17 meeting in Qatar where OPEC members and other producers may or may not (they won't) agree to cap production to curb a global glut.
Just over a year ago, a black swan landed in the middle of Europe, when in what was then dubbed a "Spectacular Development" In Austria, the "bad bank" of failed Hypo Alpe Adria - the Heta Asset Resolution AG - itself went from good to bad, with its creditors forced into an involuntary "bail-in" following the "discovery" of a $8.5 billion capital hole in its balance sheet primarily related to ongoing deterioration in central and eastern European economies.
In a somewhat more manic-than-usual introduction to his 2016 macro outlook, Eclectica's Hugh Hendry - the first of the big bears to throw in the towel and kiss the ring of central planners - admits that things did not turn out quite as he expected, noting "I used to be a big deal", that "I had $1.5 billion in AUM" and that "life is cruel."
Submitted by Pater Tenenbrarum of Acting Man
Gold: Still Misunderstood
Gold just had its best quarter in 30 years. Not surprisingly, gold bears are coming out of the woodwork en masse in the mainstream media and the analyst community (see e.g. this recent write-up by Mish on the Goldman Sachs analyst who has been screaming “short gold” since right before it started rocketing higher in early February). Below we will discuss a specific assertion that tends to be repeated over and over again.