Business

Today's batch of housing data, namely the December update of housing starts and permits, which as a reminder has a quite substantial "confidence interval" was relatively uneventful. Total housing starts of 1,149K was a drop from last month's upward revised 1,179K, and a miss to the 1,200K expected. This was due to a drop in both 1-unit structures, which declined from 794K to 768K in all regions by the Northeast, as well as a decline in multi-family, or rental, units which declined from 378K to 365K, which however declined across all four regions.

Real average weekly earnings rose a de minimus 0.1% MoM in December leaving 2015's YoY growth in earnings at just 1.6% - the weakest since Nov 2014. This Fed-narrative-destroying growth is less than half the rate in January 2015 when it peaked.

So, Janet, now what?

Since looking at Goldman's Q4 EPS was going to be a meaningless attempt at comparing apples to oranges due to the bank's recently announced $3 billion after-tax RMBS settlement, which reduced diluted earnings per common share by $6.53, we decided to instead do what we normally do with Goldman's earnings report and focus on its top line, where we found that in the fourth quarter the bank had generated only $7.3 billion in revenue, a 5.4% drop from a year ago, and underscoring just how difficult the environment is even for the bank that does god's work, this was the weakest Q4 revenue from Go

• Oil slump rocks markets again in equity rout (Reuters)
• Global Stocks on Brink of Bear Market as Oil Slides; Ruble Drops (BBG)
• Global Stocks Slide on Oil Rout (WSJ)
• Emerging Markets Roiled as Stock Selloff Surpasses Asian Crisis (BBG)
• Rising Debt in Emerging Markets Poses Global Threat (WSJ)
• China shares slip as oil slides, outweighing stimulus hopes (Reuters)
• Europe Stocks Fall to 13-Month Low as Results Stoke Growth Fears (BBG)
• Former U.S. VP candidate Palin endorses Trump with a 'hallelujah' (Reuters)

14 months ago, Saudi Arabia had a plan.

That plan involved deliberately suppressing the price of crude in order to bankrupt the US shale complex and put pressure on the Russians who were still clinging to the notion that Bashar al-Assad would remain President of Syria.

Preserving crude market share and securing the “ancillary diplomatic benefits” (to quote The New York Times) of lower oil prices has proven to be a trickier proposition than Riyadh originally imagined.