At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped.
Sellside expectations:
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
There's not much to encourage Bulls in the daily chart of the USD.
The U.S. dollar's relentless decline this year poses a question: is the USD setting up for a monster rally, or is it in a slow-motion crash? Opinions vary, of course, as to the possible reasons for the massive decline: European growth is better than expected, Trump's presidency is going nowhere, the Federal Reserve won't be raising rates, and so on.
Earlier today Bloomberg posted the following chart comparing new vehicle sales in the United States to scrappage rates of old clunkers. Now, what should immediately catch your eye (even without the huge red circle we felt compelled to add), is the fact that new car sales have been massively outstripping scrappage rates for the past 5 years.
On one hand, credit investors have never had it better with IG credit spread at record tights and junk bond yields sliding to 3 year lows
On the other, and this is linked to the above, they have never been more nervous, and as the latest Bank of America credit investor survey shows, more worried about the Fed in general, and "Quantitative Failure" in particular.
But why, if as so many claim, the Fed has nothing to do with the the return of risk assets? Ignore that, it's rhetorical.
Despite constantly being told the market's rally has nothing to do with President Trump (as he claims ownership), stocks, bond yields, and the dollar all stumbled notably when two unnamed sources familiar with the matter reportedly said Special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington to investigate allegations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections.
While stock investors 'bought the dip', The Dollar and Bond Yields remain near the lows.