China

After North Korea provoked both its neighbors and the US when on Sunday morning it fired off yet another ballistic missile from Kusong near the border with China  - one which this time did not explode upon launch  - just days after the election of a new South Korean president who ironically advocates more engagement with Pyongyang, experts said the missile appeared to be a new type of ballistic missile, and had a far greater range than any other weapon North Korea has successfully launched.

Another day, another warnings about China's fading credit impulse (see here in February, and Pimco most recently), and market complacency about what the recent monetary tightening and drop in commodity prices in Chinese markets means for global markets, this time from Citigroup.

With everyone, including Pimco, now acknowledging what we said most recently in February, namely that China's credit impulse is the main, if not only variable, that determines the fate of global reflation ...

... the latest credit numbers released by the PBOC overnight very closely watched by macro traders around the globe in light of the ongoing liquidity discussions surrounding the deleveraging narrative. 

While China growth has been slowing, and monetary conditions tightening, few (if any) have predicted any prolonged deflation (let alone a recession), yet overnight - for the first time ever - the $1.7 trillion Chinese bond market inverted, flashing a warning signal to the world that something is wrong.

Early on Thursday, the five-year yield rose to 3.71%, breaking above the 10-year yield for the first time since records began - even though the latter, at 3.68%, was near a 25-month high.

The U.S. has recorded a trade deficit in every year since 1975. This is not surprising — America spends more than it saves. So, it must run a trade deficit, and this deficit is financed by means of a virtually unlimited U.S. line of credit with the rest of the world. Economies that save more than they spend and record corresponding trade surpluses ship funds to the U.S. to finance America’s insatiable spending.