European Central Bank

With the latest ECB statement due out in just two days, traders are curious to see how Mario Draghi will escape from the trap in which the European central bank has found itself: on one hand, seeking to temper the recent dramatic rise in the Euro, on the other running out of QE eligible private-sector debt to monetize, especially in its largest captive market, Germany. While we don't know how Draghi will succeed (or fail) in this endeavor, overnight Deutsche Bank has released a useful analysis breaking down what share of bond markets the biggest central banks currently own.

Yesterday morning, with the US closed for holiday but with S&P futures trading modestly lower on the latest set of North Korean geopolitical fears, we asked "is this time different", referencing last week's similar setup, when futures gapped lower on Monday after the Kim regime shot a missile over Japan, only to surge into the end of the week.

With payrolls looming (our full preview is here), carbon-based traders around the globe are leery of putting on any major trades and so the overnight session has been rather dull, dominated by the now traditional overnight algo-mediated levitation, which means the VIX is lower and S&P futures are once again modest higher as European and Asian shares continue their ascent.

Since the plunge following North Korea's latest missile firing, the dollar has rocketed higher on the heels of a collapse in the JPY (BoJ?) and this morning on a dump in the EUR (after leaked jawboning from ECB) for the biggest 3 day swing since December.

Is this the start of a trend reversal in the dollar?

RBC's head of cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott, believes the risks of a tactical dollar reversal are growing...

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It's groundhog day as S&P futures, European and Asian shares all rise overnight, while the dollar is set to .