Yesterday's Bloomberg "trial balloon" that the ECB would cut its inflation forecasts while boosting GDP expectations was confirmed moments ago, when during his prepared remarks Draghi increased the governing council's Eurozone GDP expectations as follows:
So far "Triple Threat Thursday" has been a dud. In the day with the greatest concentration of market-moving risk events so far in 2017, market action - at least for the time being - has been a whimper, with European stocks and US futures modestly higher ahead of the ECB’s rate decision and Comey's testimony (which has now been fully publicized, removing much of the risk), as the U.K. voting is underway. Asian stocks fell led by a decline in Japan as the yen first strengthened, only to tumble later in the session.
European and Asian stocks, as well as S&P futures were little changed ahead of "Super Thursday's" events which include the U.K. general election, Comey's testimony and the ECB policy decision. That however may change following a Bloomberg news report that the ECB is set to cut inflation forecasts through 2019 due to weaker energy prices, suggesting the "hawkish" ECB announcement some had expected tomorrow has been postponed.
With traders realizing that the "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" looms, world stocks dropped and safe-haven assets rose as investors focused on the growing tension in the Middle East, while caution spread across markets in a week full of risk events including James Comey’s congressional testimony to the ECB’s policy meeting and Britain’s increasingly uncertain election, all in the span of 24 hours. As a result, European and Asian stocks as well as S&P futures all fell, while gold, yen and Treasuries gained.
Having told its employees "don't panic" over the weekend (at the crashing stock and bond prices of Spain's 6th largest bank), it appears investors are ignoring that message as Banco Popular's credit curve has inverted for the first time since 2012 in the biggest red flag yet that Spain's banking crisis is systemic and about to test the EU's bail-in laws.
Banco Popular Chairman Emilio Saracho sent a letter to staff assuring them the bank remains solvent after Friday's stock crash, courtesy of Expansion, google translated: