European Central Bank

While ECB President Mario Draghi may sound slightly hawkish at tomorrow’s press conference after an unexpectedly strong acceleration in CPI in December and European economic growth modestly picking up, the ECB is set to argue on Thursday that its extra-easy policy stance is still needed to keep the recovery on course. As a result, it is all but certain to leave current monetary policy in place and maintain a promise for lengthy stimulus, having extended its bond-buying program just last month coupled with the tapering (just don't call it a taper) of its bond purchases this year.

European shares decline led by a plunge in Pearson shares, S&P futures were modestly in the green as Asian and EM stocks gained. The dollar rebounded against most major currencies after retreating 1.3% on Tuesday to the lowest in a month following Trump's "strong dollar" comments and halted a seven-day drop against the yen.

While US markets take the day off for MLK holiday, the rest of the trading world has been busy, perhaps nowhere more so than the sterling which continued its volatile session in advance of May's pre-hard Brexit speech, falling below $1.20 for the first time since October after the Sunday Times said May is ready to withdraw from tariff-free trade with the region in return for the ability to curb immigration and strike commercial deals with other countries.

When previewing the key events of the week, we noted that today Canadian DBRS rating agency is scheduled to review Italy's credit rating after putting its credit worthiness on negative watch on 5 August. On 5 December, DBRS issued a press release declaring that they would wait for the impact of the Italian referendum result on the continuation of the reform push before making the final decision.

In case of a downgrade, the haircut for a 5y BTP used as collateral for ECB operations, as an example, would rise from 2% to 10%.

Risk assets declined across the globe, with European, Asian shares and S&P 500 futures all falling, while the dollar slumped against most currencies after a news conference by President-elect Donald Trump disappointed investors with limited details of his economic-stimulus plans, and the Trumpflation/reflation trade was said to be unwinding.