European Central Bank

Just as we were concluding our write up on the return of Europe's solvency crisis, facilitated by Donald Trump's NATO funding demands and the end of the ECB's unprecedented can kicking exercise, the FT reported that as many as eight of Italy’s troubled banks "risk failing" if prime minister Renzi loses next weekend's constitutional referendum and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalizing them, citing senior bankers.

One week after the BIS issued an unexpectedly stern, if completely ignored warning, that the surge in the USD is leading to an abrupt tightening in financial conditions around the globe, making the repayment of trillions in USD-denominated cross-border debt increasingly more difficult and suggesting that the Dollar index itself is the new "fear indicator", overnight another central bank, the European Central Bank warned that the risk of "abrupt" global asset market corrections "have intensified" on the back of rising political uncertainty, posing a threat to banks, stability and economi

While most global equity markets were subdued due to the US Thaksgiving holiday, the FX world was very busy overnight, marked by the relentless dollar surge on expectations of a rate hike not only in December but further in 2017, sending Asian currencies to the weakest level in 7 years: the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached 103.32, the lowest level since March 2009.

In a quiet overnight session in which Japan was closed, European shares are mixed as financials and auto weigh, Asian stocks rise led by materials while S&P futures little changed against a backdrop of the continuing commodity rally with oil holding near $48 a barrel, up fractionally on the session. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index was up slightly at 101.12, very close to a 14-year peak. The dollar also kept most of its recent hefty gains on the yen at 111.05 though it has met resistance around 111.35 in the last couple of sessions

European and Asian stocks rose after the early scare from the latest Fukushima quake dissipated when all Tsunami warnings were cancelled. The global risk on mood was spurred by another jump in crude, which was up 1% in early trading, with the commodity complex now enjoying its biggest three-day rally since May, after Nigeria signaled optimism that OPEC will agree a supply-cut deal next week in Vienna. S&P futures are up 0.3%, with the cash index set to open at new record highs.