Labor

Goldman's muppet crushing ways continue.

Recall that just three days before today's deplorable jobs number, Goldman revised its payrolls forecast higher, saying that "we expect a 240k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in April. We increased our forecast from an initial estimate of 225k published last Friday as a result of the improvement in the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing survey released this week."

Oops.

In addition to the troubling trend revealed by the yet again declining labor participation rate as a result of hundreds of thousands of Americans dropping out of the labor force (and lack of entrants), one other recurring concern we have had with the jobs report is that new job growth has disproportionately gone to elderly workers, those 55 and over at the expense of young (16-24) and prime aged (25-54) workers.

In addition to the poor headline Establishment survey print which rose only 160,000 in April, coupled with a deplorable Household survey employment number which plunged by 316,000 for the month and below levels seen in February, an even more concerning development was the resumption in the deteriorating trend in the US labor force participation rate, which in recent months had been on a steady increase as far fewer workers were dropping out of the workforce (contrary to convention wisdom, this was not driven by new entrants into the labor force).

So much for the only indicator that confirmed a "strong recovery." In yet another Goldman jinx which just two days ago boosted its payrolls forecast from 225K to 240K, moments ago the BLS reported that ADP's ominous print was right when it said that April payrolls rose only 160K, far below the 200K expected, and higher than just 1 of 92 economist expectations. This was the lowest print since last September's 145K.

Private payrolls rose 171K on expectations of a 195K print, with last month's 230K revised steeply lower to 184K.

Citizens in Switzerland are to vote on whether the country will become the first to guarantee a basic monthly income next month.  Swiss voters will decide whether every citizen and legal resident will earn $2,600 tax-free per month, on the June 5 elections. Sputniknews.com reports: “This is a great idea,” Chloe Hubert, a student at the University of Geneva, told USA Today. “I only work on weekends, so this income would really help.” Switzerland allows any proposal to be placed on the ballot, so long as a minimum of 100,000 signatures are obtained.