United States

The IMF has cut its US GDP forecast to 2.1% in 2017 from 2.3% projected in April and to 2.1% for 2018 from 2.5% previously, it said in a statement following its U.S. Article IV Consultation, and saying it could no longer assume the Trump administration will be able to deliver pledged tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Specifically, in giving up on the Trump agenda, the fund said "we have removed the assumed fiscal stimulus from our forecast."

Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger notes that part of Trump’s appeal to many of his voters was, at least ostensibly, the idea that he would employ a less hawkish/neocon foreign policy than his opponent Hillary “We Came, We Saw, He Died” Clinton.

While it’s still too early to decisively say that Trump will usher in yet another foreign policy disaster for these United States and the world, it’s certainly not looking good.

 

During an appearance on the Liberty Report last week, Dr. Ron Paul interviewed former NSA contractor Edward Snowden about the rise of the Deep State and how intelligence agencies are threatening Americans’ freedom. But in the closing moments of that interview, Snowden surprised Paul with an unexpected request:

“I was thinking I could ask you a question Dr. Paul, again about the intelligence stuff…I think it’d be interesting to people and I don’t think we’ve ever heard it from your perspective…”

It's widely known that the Federal Reserve has been tasked by Congress with a "dual mandate" to maintain stable consumer-goods prices, low unemployment and - oh yes - buoyant equity prices. However, as Reuters revealed on Monday, the central bank has another legally binding obligation that might upset some of its clients: Helping the US intelligence community spy on foreign governments.

While the fundamental outlook for oil appears weak, with U.S. shale drillers continuing to add extra rigs (despite the downturn in prices), Reuters' John Kemp warns that positioning data suggests the risk of a short-covering rally is increasing.

The hedge fund community placed enormous faith in OPEC’s ability to accelerate oil market rebalancing through cuts announced late in 2016 in association with key non-OPEC producers.