Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,
Today we engage in a simple thought experiment: what 3 pieces of information would you need to confidently call the 2016 end-of-year level on the S&P 500?
A brief survey of senior Convergex traders yielded this list: year-end worldwide central bank rates, Chinese GDP growth in 2016, actual 2016 US corporate earnings, the winner of the U.S. presidential race, and the pace of increases in the Fed Funds rate for the year.
Just two months ago, former Fed President Dick Fisher admitted that "The Fed front-loaded an enormous market rally in order to create a wealth effect." Today he is back, taking a victory lap onthe 7th anniversary of the crisis lows by explaining, rather stunningly, to CNBC that "we injected cocaine and heroin into the system" to enable a wealth effect (that he admits did not work, despite its success in raising asset prices), and "now we are maintaining it with ritalin." Fisher also confirmed his previous warning that "The Fed is a gian
Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,
While the world’s central banks struggle with deflation, millennials (those born between 1980 – 2000) are busy creating a world where persistently lower prices will be an economic cornerstone. “A feature, not a bug,” as they say in the tech world.
The Fed is rapidly losing control.
Core inflation has already broken above 2%.
This happened when OIL was imploding.
As well as commodities in general.
Why does this matter?
Because core inflation is ABOVE 2% at a time when commodity prices were FALLING. The Government HAS TO adjust its models to account for this so that ANY RISE in commodity prices will PUSH inflation to the upside.
Speaking of which, since bottoming in February, Oil is up over 22%. Industrial metals are up 8%.
Any time a Fed president, governor or chairman trots out the trite cliche that the Fed is "apolitical" we can't help but laugh for one simple reason: not only is the Fed not apolitical, but is very closely ideologically tied with whichever party promotes deficit spending which by definition is inflationary: more deficits mean more debt, means more opportunity for the Fed to show off its "inflation" creating skills; and in a Keynesian world, a stable 2% inflation is the lubricant that drives and stabilizes the financial system - the Fed's true mandate.