We suspecty this NSFW clip reflects the sounds coming from more than a few investors today...
Some more dismal data this morning - yeah seriously more of it - sent the US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest level in over two years...
First thing this morning, one of the recent "bullish converts", Bloomberg Marc Breslow was the first to accuse Yellen of making a big mistake, and warning that this may be it for stocks for the time being. He was followed by "Macro Tourist" Kevin Muir, who likewise had been "bullish for a while" then turned negative today on concerns that the global liquidity tsunami is ending.
The Fed wants to start shrinking its balance sheet. That it may not start doing this right away or could reverse this at any time is irrelevant right now…
The IMPORTANT THING is the Fed BROADCASTING what it wants.
This is just like the 2013 QE taper: the Fed broadcast that it was coming for months before it started doing it.
The Fed’s current balance sheet reduction plan is the same thing.
What you or I think about this doesn’t matter: we’re not in charge of Fed policy.
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,
After many months of fighting all the naysayers predicting the next big stock market crash, I am finally succumbing to the seductive story of the dark side, and getting negative on equities. I am often early, so maybe this means the rally is about to accelerate to the upside. I am willing to take that chance. It would be just like me to pound the table on the long side, and then abandon the trade right before it goes parabolic.
One of the lingering questions to emerge from yesterday's FOMC meeting, after Yellen's "first dovish, then hawkish" statement rocked the dollar and markets, is whether the Fed chair has some more accurate way of forecasting inflation than the rest of market to justify her optimistic outlook, and to explain why the divergence between the Fed's dot plot and the market's own FF forecasts is nearly 100%. And, if not, is the Fed about to make another major policy mistake by forecasting a far stronger economy than is possible, culminating with a recession.