Two weeks ago, the IAF assassinated infamous Lebanese militant Samir Kuntar.
Kuntar was held by Israel for nearly three decades in connection with his role in a 1979 raid that killed four people including a four-year-old girl. He returned to Lebanon in 2008 in a prisoner swap with Hezbollah, which he subsequently joined.
To the Israelis, Kuntar is evil incarnate - the very embodiment of terrorism. For many in Iran and Lebanon, he’s something of a folk hero. Here he is with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah:
And here’s a shot of Kuntar with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:
Kuntar was killed on December 19 in an airstrike on Damascus that many suspected was carried out by the IAF although Israel didn’t immediately confirm or deny its involvement, with one official saying only that “it is good that people like Samir Kuntar will not be part of our world.”
The question, we said at the time, is “what Hassan Nasrallah plans to do about” Kuntar’s death.
Well on Monday, just as the worsening spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran tipped the region even further into chaos, Hezbollah set of a “large bomb”, striking an IDF convoy on the Lebanon border. "A cell of the martyr Samir Kuntar detonated the large explosive in Sheba farms area in occupied Lebanon during an IDF patrol causing the destruction of a Hummer and injuring all its passengers," the group said, in a statement taking credit for the attack, which came a day after Nasrallah said the following:
“The Israelis are hiding like rats along the border. The retaliation to Samir’s assassination will inevitably come. Hezbollah would not tolerate the blood of our jihadist fighters and brothers to be shed anywhere in this world.”
Monday's bombing targeted "two armored military vehicles that were clearing a road in the area [and] the IDF has responded with cross-border artillery fire at targets into Lebanon," The Jerusalem Post writes, adding that "Lebanese media said the explosive was meant to harm a senior Mossad official."
"We have opened artillery fire, and created a smoke screen to cover the area. We are in control of the incident," IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Moti Almoz said.
The Israeli military had been shelling the Lebanese border for at least four days in the lead up to Monday's attack. "Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly vowed revenge for the assassination of arch-terrorist Samir Kuntar two weeks ago. Anticipating such a response, the army has been firing artillery rounds at the border fence," The Times of Israel wrote on Sunday. Here's a bit more color from The Post:
Lebanese media earlier reported that Israeli shells were fired at the Sheba Farms region near the intersection of the Syrian, Israeli, and Lebanese frontiers.
The news reports north of the border are consistent with eyewitness accounts of Israelis on the Golan Heights who told The Jerusalem Post’s Hebrew-language sister publication Ma’ariv that they heard the roar of artillery fire over the weekend.
According to Lebanese news outlets, the IDF fired 20 shells toward the vicinity of Sheba Farms, which is also known as Mount Dov.
An Israeli military official told Ma’ariv on Sunday that the purpose of the artillery fire was to deter Hezbollah from planting explosives along the border in an effort to avenge the death of Samir Kuntar.
“I cleared up this issue with the army after I received numerous complaints from residents,” a security guard in one of the Israeli towns along the border said. “A senior officer in the IDF Northern Command told me that there is a real concern that Hezbollah will plant a bomb along the border under the cover of fog, so whenever we spot suspicious activity we fire an artillery shell in that direction for the sake of deterrence.”
And here's AP:
Hezbollah said it set off a large explosive device as an armored patrol passed in the disputed Chebaa Farms area, destroying a Humvee and causing casualties among the soldiers inside.
The Israeli army said vehicles in the area were hit with an improvised explosive device and that it responded with targeted artillery fire. It did not say whether there were any casualties.
Lebanese security officials said more than 50 Israeli shells hit several villages in the area where the Hezbollah operation was carried out.
Residents along the border said shelling from Israeli tanks and artillery landed in agricultural areas inside Lebanon, but did not report casualties.
The officials said the patrol was hit near an Israeli army position in the Kfar Chouba hills that Lebanon says is Lebanese land occupied by Israel.
The residents requested anonymity, saying they feared for their safety, while the officials did so in line with regulations. Neither group had any immediate word on casualties.
The Hezbollah unit that carried out the bombing was named after Samir Kuntar, a high-profile figure in the group who was killed last month in Syria in an attack blamed on Israel.
So, is the stage set for a repeat of the 2006 Lebanon war? In other words, will the death of Samir Kuntar be the event that reignites the long simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah just as the latter battles alongside the IRGC and the SAA in Syria? Consider the following from IB Times:
Monday marked the fifth consecutive day that Israel shelled the Lebanese border. The increased attacks come at a time when Hezbollah’s fighting forces are entrenched in Syria’s conflict, fighting alongside President Bashar Assad’s regime. Despite the personnel losses the Shiite militants have faced, Hezbollah maintains that fighting on two fronts has not weakened Hezbollah.
But, for the last decade, the border between the two countries has mostly been calm: Hezbollah and Israel’s last war was in 2006, lasting little over a month and resulting in the deaths of some 500 Shiite militiamen and more than 100 Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah has focused its attention on battles in Syria, Iraq and Yemen at the behest of its major ally and financial backer: Iran. In the past year, Hezbollah has had its hands full fighting alongside the Lebanese army to push Sunni militants from al Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State group away from Lebanon’s border with Syria. But the wars with Israel, like Hussein’s old military gear, have not been forgotten in the south.
“Nothing profound has changed in the group’s attitude and strategy with respect to the "next war with Israel,’” Benedetta Berti, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote in Lebanese news outlet Ya Libnan. “Since 2006, both Israel and Hezbollah have continued to prepare for the next conflict.”
One wonders whether the assassination of Kuntar - which, you're reminded, took place inside of Syria - wasn't an attempt on Israel's part to divert Hezbollah's attention away from the fight in Syria. Keep in mind that although Israel is officially "neutral" in the Syrian conflict, the ouster of Assad would remove a key state actor in Iran's Shiite crescent and would effectively cut Hezbollah off from its benefactors in Tehran.
In other words: if Assad falls, it's good news for the Israelis.
Could Netanyahu be trying to draw Nasrallah into a conflict in order to force Hezbollah to divert soldiers and resources away from the frontlines in Syria thereby giving the rebels a leg up on the ground?
We close with the following quote from a senior Hezbollah commander who spoke to IB Times:
“Anyone who thinks the southern front is weakened is wrong. We consider our fights in Syria as a fun trip compared to [our] fight with Israel. Our main cause is Israel, and we always work on this.”
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Bonus: Statfor's take
Senior Hezbollah militant Samir Kantar was killed Dec. 21 in an alleged Israeli airstrike against his home on the outskirts of Damascus. Israel Defense Forces declined to confirm the strike and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate. Both Israel and Hezbollah are seeking to avoid an all-out war, and they will likely be able to do so. However, the assassination highlights the long-simmering conflict between the two sides and the risks of potential escalation.
In spite of Israel's decision not to confirm Hezbollah's allegations of an airstrike, Israeli forces were likely responsible for the killing. A Syrian rebel group, the Free Syrian Army, has issued claims that it conducted the attack itself. But the strike, which involved four long-range missiles targeting an apartment building and yielded minimal collateral damage, was well beyond the capability of the rebels. Israel had a motivation to take out Kantar as well: According to Western intelligence sources, he was planning a major terror attack against Israel in the Golan Heights.
Kantar is a Lebanese Druze militant who spent 30 years in an Israeli prison for his role in a kidnapping and killing in a town near Lebanon during a Palestine Liberation Front attack in 1979. He was released in a 2008 prisoner exchange and joined Hezbollah soon after. Kantar became a prominent member of Hezbollah and has been fighting on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's government as well as building terrorist infrastructure in the Golan Heights to attack Israel. Recently, Kantar became involved with the more extreme Syrian National Defense Forces, a volunteer military service organized by the Syrian government and trained by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is also personally overseen by Quds Force leader Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Another target of Israel's strike, Farhan al-Shaalan, was also linked to the Syrian National Defense Forces.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian government loyalists have condemned Israel for the attack, promising retaliation at a time of their choosing. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command), the Syrian splinter of the Palestinian group of the same name, retaliated by firing three Katyusha rockets. Israeli forces immediately responded with artillery rounds fired into southern Lebanon. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command) supports the Syrian government alongside Hezbollah, but the group's principal objective is to attack Israel. It therefore likely supported Kantar's preparations to strike in the Golan Heights. These plans were Israel's primary motivation in targeting Kantar, despite his Hezbollah membership and support of the associated Syrian National Defense Forces.
Kantar's death may spur a reaction from other Palestinian militant groups, but Hezbollah is keen to avoid opening a second front with Israel alongside the militant group's weighty commitment in Syria. That said, Hezbollah's goal has long been to deny Israel the ability to strike the group at will. In effect, Hezbollah has sought to establish a level of deterrence that forces Israel to weigh the costs of potential retaliation. There are signs that Hezbollah has partly succeeded in this goal. Even though Israel has continued its strikes in Syria, it has mostly avoided targeting Hezbollah stockpiles in Lebanon or increasing the rate of its assaults against the group in Syria.
With the latest attack, Hezbollah has pledged vengeance and there is a distinct possibility that the group will seek to retaliate to maintain a credible deterrence. Despite the promises of revenge, the militant group will calibrate any retaliation to avoid triggering a wider conflict with Israel. Rather than risking an all-out counterattack against Israel, Hezbollah is much more likely to stage a limited operation. This could be similar to the January Shebaa farms incident in which militants attacked an Israeli patrol with anti-tank guided missiles, killing two Israelis in the process. This was in response to an Israeli attack that killed Hezbollah and Iranian officers in Quneitra 10 days before.
For its part, Israel also appears to want to avoid escalation. Otherwise, the Israelis would have already struck at Hezbollah while the group is stretched thin in Syria. Even so, Israel has prepared for retaliation by moving an extra Iron Dome battery to the north and has maintained its counterstrikes against militant targets with artillery and air assets. In the midst of all these movements and calculations, the danger remains that attacks could spiral out of control and lead to a wider conflict, even as both sides work to avoid one.