Published
5 seconds ago
on
August 23, 2024
| 11 views
-->
By
Julia Wendling
Graphics & Design
- Athul Alexander
The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
Does it Matter to the Market Who Wins the White House?
During election years, the focus is on the political horse race. However, after the final poll closes, how have the market and the economy performed under both Democrat and Republican presidents?
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with New York Life Investments to explore stock market performance, consumer outcomes, and corporate sentiment across each presidential party.
Democrats vs. Republicans: Stock Market Performance
History shows that the S&P 500 does not favor a clear “winner” when it comes to the political party of sitting presidents.
The mean compounded average annual growth rate (CAGR) with Democratic presidents is slightly higher than with Republican presidents. Median performance, however, is higher under Republican presidents.
| Party | Mean S&P 500 CAGR | Median S&P 500 CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Republican | 6.2% | 10.2% |
To date, former President Clinton (D) (+15.2% CAGR) and former President Trump (R) (+14.1% CAGR) have seen the largest stock market gains among past presidents on record.
Democrats vs. Republicans: Consumer Outcomes
Like the S&P 500’s performance, presidential leadership has not been a key factor in determining the inflation rate and unemployment rate in the U.S. since the late-1940s.
The sum of the nation’s inflation rate and unemployment rate together provide a measure of consumer “pain” in the economy.
| Party | Inflation Rate + Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|
| Democrat | 9.5% |
| Republican | 9.0% |
The average sum with a Democratic president over the last 70+ years is +9.0% versus +9.5% for Republicans.
Democrats vs. Republicans: Corporate Sentiment
As with their consumer-related counterparts, corporate sentiment has also remained consistent regardless of the presidential party, on average.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides a measure of business sentiment in the economy. A score of below 50 represents deteriorating sentiment and a score of above 50 means sentiment is improving.
| Party | Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) |
|---|---|
| Democrat | 54.9 |
| Republican | 54.3 |
The average PMI under Republican presidents since 2000 is 54.3 versus 54.9 for Democrats—nearly identical and both in expansion terrain.
Informed Investing
Looking at past presidents, both Democrat and Republican, there have been roughly consistent market and economic track records. This highlights the importance of looking beyond the political noise and maintaining a diversified portfolio.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments.
Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.Enjoying the data visualization above? *Subscribe
Related Topics: #inflation #s&p 500 #republicans #democrats #us presidents #stock returns #sentiment #New York Life Investments #unemployment rate #pmi #2024 election
Click for Comments
var disqus_shortname = "visualcapitalist.disqus.com";
var disqus_title = "Does it Matter to the Market Who Wins the White House?";
var disqus_url = "https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/democrats-vs-republicans-does-it-matter-to-the-market/";
var disqus_identifier = "visualcapitalist.disqus.com-169573";
You may also like
-
Energy17 hours ago
America’s Energy Divide: How Democrats and Republicans Feel on Energy
Out of all energy sources, nuclear energy has the smallest partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans.
-
Politics1 week ago
Ranked: The Countries Most Exposed to Trump’s U.S. Trade Policy
If Trump returns to office, U.S. trade policy could become increasingly protectionist, with steep implications for major trading partners.
-
Africa2 weeks ago
Mapped: Countries Experiencing the Most Negative Emotions
People in African and Middle Eastern countries had the most negative emotions like feeling angry, sad, or stressed.
-
United States2 weeks ago
Visualized: Company PAC Donations for the 2024 Presidential Election
Political action committees, or PACs, are major players during U.S. federal elections. Which way are company PACs donating in 2024?
-
United States3 weeks ago
Mapped: The Number of Active Duty Troops in Each U.S. State (2024)
States with long coastlines tend to host the most active duty troops, with one exception, home to the services’ newest branch.
-
War3 weeks ago
Ranked: The World’s Biggest Submarine Fleets
Russia has the most submarines, but the U.S. leads in technology.
Subscribe
Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.Join the 375,000+ subscribers who receive our daily email *Sign Up
The post Does it Matter to the Market Who Wins the White House? appeared first on Visual Capitalist.