Tracking the disappointing, and downward revised March jobs report, when as a reminder the US added only 79,000 jobs, today's JOLTS report showed a decidedly more benign labor market in the month of March, with good news on the job openings front, offset by another month of hiring weakness.
So what did "Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator" show? First, the surprising spike high in overall February job openings was revised lower from 5.743MM to 5.682MM, which in turn resulted in March job openings hitting what was the pre-revised February number, or exactly 5.743MM, modestly above the expected 5.670MM, and the highest since last July. The job categories with the biggest number of open jobs were Professional and Business Services (1.102MM) and Health care and Social assistance (1.062MM).
According to RSM calculations, the latest JOLTS data indicate further labor market tightening, with the number of individuals per job opening falling to 1.32.
And while America's millions of job openings remain unfilled, a continuation of the recent troubling trend was seen in the March hiring numbers, which showed that hiring in March barely changed, although last month's sharp drop was revised higher. As a result, in March some 5.260 million people were hired, up 11K from the previous month, and the highest since December's 5.303 million.
What is more concerning is that this series has largely flatlined in the 5.2-5.3 million range for the past two years.
Putting the above chart in a more troubling light was the Y/Y % rate of change: as shown in the chart below, has been steadily declining since 2014, and was negative year-over-year for two consecutive months, the first such two-month stretch since the end of the financial crisis.
Which leads to our favorite chart: hiring vs payrolls. With the cumulative 12 month change in jobs declining steadily since 2015, many wonder if and when the pace of hiring - traditionally a leading indicator to overall jobs growth - will start a sharper deterioration. For now, it has kept steady in the abovementioned range.
Last but not least was that other key indicator, the "quits" rate, or the "take this job and shove it" metric according to Convergex' Nick Colas. As a reminder, Americans only quit their jobs when they are confident they can find a better paying job elsewhere, and in January we saw the number of quits rising to the highest level in 16 years. In February, the number dropped substantially upon revision, but has since rebounded and is back to just shy of its post Y2K high.