Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,
Some reflections to read over the Easter holidays
With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook.
It appears the complete decoupling from economic reality of the so-called US equity 'market', combined with the collapse in a data-dependent Fed's credibility - topics we have extensively covered - has reached the mainstream. Barron's always-insightful Randy Forsyth exposes the ugly reality that this is a "Bullard" market and we are just living in it as the flip-flopping Fed head is "the most visible telltale of the shifting winds of Fed expectations.
Authored by James Montier & Philip Pilkington via GMO,
Executive Summary
The last two days have seen 30Y yields plunge over 12bps (the biggest move since September's Fed fold) to one-month lows. At the same time, thanks to The Fed's hawkish jawboning, stocks are dumping also with The Dow joining the rest in the red for 2016. Gold is rallying back from its monkey-hammering yesterday but remains the laggard post-Fed.
With the USD Index stretching to its longest winning streak of the year, jawboned by numerous Fed speakers explaining how April is 'live' (and everyone misunderstood the dovishness of Yellen), it appears that The PBOC wanted to send a message to The Fed - Raise rates and we will unleash turmoil on your 'wealth creation' plan.