US Federal Reserve

We will be the first to admit that in the current centrally-planned world, where nothing but the words and deeds of central bankers matter, fundamentals, seasonals, technicals and charts are a laughable anachronism from days gone by when the market - as traded by humans and not vacuum tubes with laser beams - could drop 10% without the Federal Reserve collapsing into a panicked mess.

However, there are those who still believe that what used to work in the past still does, and trade according to the patterns observed in the Trader's Almanac.

In recent weeks, Goldman Sachs has gained prominence by being the only bank left standing in its confidence that the Fed's forecast of 2 rate hikes in 2016 is wrong, and instead is sticking with its hawkish prediction of at least 3 rate hikes for 2016. This also explains why Goldman has been pounding the table on long US dollar bets, which incidentally have led to major losses in the past three major central bank announcements, two from Mario Draghi and one from Yellen.

Remember when the central bank of the United States worried about development in the, well, United States? Those days are gone. Presenting: China. From page 8 of Yellen's speech on "The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy":

With the central-bank-inspired short-squeeze-driven equity market surge losing momentum, Janet Yellen's 'hint-hint' speech today to The Economic Club of New York comes at a critical moment. Amid the constant chatter of headline-making Fed members, seemingly flooring (and capping) the S&P's movement with their algo-driving comments, Yellen is caught between a credibility-crushing dovish (the world is collapsing and we need to maintain equity 'wealth' creation) rock and the hawkish (rate normalization continues - just look at how awesome jobs

The most important event of the day, if not week now that the monthly payrolls report has become meaningless in steering the Fed's no-longer-US-but-Chinese-data-dependent-path, will be Yellen's speech at the NY Economic Club shortly after noon local time.