US Federal Reserve

Just one week ago, when the US dollar was surging when one after another Fed president were making hawkish statements (who can forget Bullard's forecast that a rate hike may occur as soon as April), one of the speeches which surprised the market the most, was that by Chicago Fed's permadove Chuck Evans, who on March 22 said that the Federal Reserve is on track for "gentle, gradual" rate hikes unless economic data comes in a lot stronger than expected or inflation picks up faster than anticipated, a top Fed official said on Tuesday.

On the last day of an extremely volatile first quarter, following the latest torrid push higher in risk assets over the past two days following Yellen's dovish Tuesday comments, today has seen a modest pull back in risk, whether because the market is massively overbought, because someone finally looked at what record multiple expansion that has taken place in Q1 as earnings are set to collapse by nearly 10%, or simply due to fears that tomorrow's payrolls number will show an abnormal amount of minimum wage waiters and bartenders added.

It appears the messaging from The People's Bank Of China to The Fed was heard loud and understood. Having exercised its will to weaken the Yuan (implying turmoil is possible), Janet Yellen delivered the dovish goods and so China 'allowed' the Yuan to rally back. In a double-whammy for everyone involved the biggest 3-day strengthening of the Yuan fix since 2005 also pushed Yuan forwards back to their richest relative to spot since Aug 2014 - once again showing their might against the dastardly speculative shorts.

After The Fed jawboned the world into the largest aggregate net short position in Treasuries in Q4 since 2010, its rapid realization that all is not well in the real world - and subsequent talking (and walking) back of rate-hike expectations - has sparked the biggest short-squeeze in 6 years and sent Treasuries up by the most since 2012. With odds collapsing for any more rate-hikes in 2016, as Yellen admits their forecasts are worthless, it seems - just as in 2010 - the bonds shorts have a way to go.

Three weeks ago, in the aftermath of the initially disappointing market reaction to the ECB's lack of further NIRP euphoria which sent stocks (at first) lower, various technicians came out with calls that the bear market rally is over, perhaps most notably Evercore ISI's Rich Ross who said "My Bullish tactical call is over. While we have repeatedly highlighted 2030 as our upside target, the rapid post ECB reversals in the cross asset technicals dictates that we abandon our tactical view at this time in favor of a far more defensive posture.