Business

One week ago, we warned that "Valeant Lenders Demand Two Pounds Of Flesh For Covenant Waivers", a function of Valeant having virtually no leverage.

Well, while Valeant proudly announced it had obtained a covenant waiver from its lenders late last week, it appears not everyone was onboard with the plan, and as a result moments ago Valeant stock crashed (below $30) after hours as major bond investor Centerbridge has notified the company that it intends to call a default event, presumably on annual report delays breaking covenants.

As is the case every month, moments ago Jeff Gundlach started his periodic webcast to DoubleLine investors, this time focusing on asset allocation.

Among his notable remarks so far is that it increasingly looks like the Fed hike "increasingly likely looks like a one and done scenario" and that the Bond market keeps saying at best just one Fed hike this year.

Come to think of it, looking at the S&P, so do stocks.

So a done deal became "hope for a deal" for a freeze at record production levels amid The IMF slashing global growth (and thus demand) expectations... and this happened...NOTE - all momentum faded when NYMEX closed

Your annotated day...

Kinda makes you wonder...

Something ugly this way comes. As we noted last week, despite proclamations that any weakness in US spending or economic data is merely seasonal or transitory, BofA's credit and debit card spending data revealed that sales were notably weak. Today we get further confirmation of what Retail ETF investors have been seeing for a while as Johnson-Redbook reported a 2.8% plunge in Same-Store-Sales - the worst start to an April since 2005.

When BofA's Michael Hartnett releases his monthly Fund Managers' Survey, the one chart we always focus on is the one showing what the "smart money" investors, aka those polled clients who make up the survey (and the same ones who we reported earlier have been selling this bear market rally for the eleven consecutive weeks) are most worried about, or as they put it: what are the biggest "tail risks."

Below we share a quick summary of the responses for every month of 2016, revealing what investors thought were the biggest tail risks in every month of 2016.