Ever since the start of ECB's QE, one of the biggest concerns has been how will the ECB continue monetizing €60 billion in debt in a market that is increasingly illiquid and running out of collateral. Moments ago we got the answer when the ECB not only went even deeper into negative rates territory, cutting all three of its main rates, but boosted QE by €20BN.
For Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, there is - to put it mildly - a lot riding on what the ECB announces in just about 10 mintues. Recall it was DB just a month ago when, with its stock plunging to near record lows, the bank issued an appeal to the ECB: "Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us." As it later turned out, all Deutsche did not want is more negative rates, and was perfectly ok with more QE or a two-tier system, but more NIRP by Draghi seems unavoidable. Which is why as Reid asks, "is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory."
2016 has been the year that investors turned bearish on central banks.
Something snapped in the market’s collective psyche when Kuroda went NIRP and things haven’t been the same since. It’s as though everyone suddenly realized just how utterly insane this global monetary experiment has become.
Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are mostly higher this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.
The European Central Bank promised in January to "review and reconsider" its monetary stance this week. The question, as BloombergBriefs notes, is not if policy makers will ease but how. Haruhiko Kuroda's humbling in FX markets shows what Mario Draghi is up against tomorrow: namely, that even the most forceful policy decisions can be overwhelmed by events, positioning, or sentiment.